Is It Worth Betting on the Outsider in a Horse Race?

Is It Worth Betting on the Outsider in a Horse Race? Are you the type of punter who bets on favourites or outsiders?

Both have strength and weakness.

Each to their own, you might say. If your betting pays, you don’t need to listen to anyone’s opinion but your own. However, if you are losing hand over fist you need to question why. Gambling is about having answers to questions. They will never be one hundred percent correct but if you are betting with your emotions or knee-jerk reactions you will pay a hefty price.

Cold, hard cash.

If you are a favourite backer, you don’t need me to tell you, your win strike better be high. Even if you are a very successful gambler, you will be talking about a return on investment (ROI) of 10 or 20% (if you’re lucky). So many people bet on favourites but, on average, about 30% win. That number should be a sobering thought. It details that you are going to struggle to win without being selective. All gambling should be skill based. If you are betting on luck then you need to go watch TV and go do something less boring instead.

An important part of betting is your stake. There are books written on this subject so a short paragraph can only detail one or two thoughts. However, I would suggest whether you bet odds-on or 100/1 shot, you bet level stake. This may sound crazy but if you don’t you will find you bet less on the bigger priced winners when they are ones that make your season.

Ask my brother who bet £20 at 200/1 and won £4,000.

If you don’t bet on outsiders you don’t have to think about much more than the jolly.

But what are the true odds of a 50/1 horse winning, let’s day, a two-year-old race?

It very much depends on the horse. I’ve seen a number of rags (outsiders) win easily. Clearly, they should never have been such huge odds. It happens from time to time. In general, you don’t need to be a Professor of Mathematics to say most horses priced 50/1 should be double or triple those odds.

I’m sure you have seen a 250/1 shot with the bookmakers priced 999/1 on the exchanges.

I’ve recently concluded a study which shows the price of every winner for a 2yo Flat turf seasons. This gave me an opportunity to review the success or failure of horses at speculative-priced odds.

You would be surprised how few horses win at giant odds.

For example just 46 horse won at odds priced 20/1+. The biggest priced winner being priced 150/1.

Quite startling only 8 horses won at odds bigger than 33/1. This data didn’t include handicaps or plating class.

It shows the likelihood of a horse winning at big odds.

This doesn’t mean to say the horse at shorter starting odds hasn’t been substantially backed. My good friend, Eric Winner, tipped a horse at 100/1 and its starting price (SP) was 12/1. However, this insight leads most punters to think betting on outsiders isn’t a good bet. In fact, most bookmaker’s profit is made from these, often, luckless flutters.

It doesn’t mean you cannot win a fortune for a small bet.

It happens.

How Do You Make Money Betting on Horse Racing?

How Do You Make Money Betting on Horse Racing? It’s a question many gamblers have asked.

When 98% of gamblers lose money on a regular basis, there is one thing you need to do – separate yourself from the crowd.

It’s logical to think the majority of gamblers cannot win. So the question is: ‘How can the average punter set themselves apart?’

It’s a fallacy that difference the between a successful and poor gambler is about how much money they bet. The wisdom being, the more you bet the more success you will have. This is completely wrong. Without honing your skills you have little chance of beating your opponent – the layer who takes your bet.

But how can your average punter set himself apart?

By having a niche.

You may ask: ‘Why do you need to have a niche?’ Simply because you cannot know everything. A the wise man knows that you don’t need to either. Sometimes less is more and that is the case about a skill-based knowledge.

The chance of a beginner beating a seasoned chess player is zero.

There is no mystery to success or failure. Winning and losing is based on the skill to educate or find a mentor who can do the groundwork.

My specialism is two-year-old horse racing. It is an an age group of race horses which I know to a very high level. In fact, I am confident I am one of the leading experts within this field. This knowledge sets me apart from the crowd.

If you want to make money betting on horse racing then you need to find answers to questions, work in a professional manner and bet selectively when the odds are in your favour.

At times, even the best gamblers need a little bit of luck. In the sense if you have a horse that wins by a nose, you’d rather it be a speculative bet to win a grand than an odds-on favourite.

However, if you rely on luck rather than skill you will soon be living in the poor house.

How many furlongs are in a mile?

How many furlongs are in a mile? Every sport has its own terminology. For example, for horse racing, how many furlongs are in one mile?

The answer is eight.

And there are two-hundred-and-one metres in a furlong. An average race horse can run a furlong in about twelve seconds which, is an impressive forty miles per hour (mph).

So a furlong is an eighth of a mile or two-hundred and twenty yards.

In the UK thoroughbred race horses run over a minimum distance of five-furlong, which on average takes about one minute to complete (on average 6 seconds for 100m). Times vary from racecourse to racecourse. Epsom, which is predominantly downhill, is reputed to be the fastest courses in the world. In fact, the current world record is 53:69 seconds, set by a horse named Stone Of Folca in 2012.

The longest Flat race distance is about two miles four furlongs. In fact the Queen Alexander Stakes run at Ascot in June covers a distance of two miles five furlongs and one hundred and forty three yards. It is the longest professional Flat race in the world.

There are 60 racecourses in the UK, predominantly on the turf with a handful taking part on the all-weather tracks.

The National Hunt racing distances vary from 1 ½ miles (National Hunt Flat race) to 4 ½ miles regarding the Grand National which takes part at Aintree, Liverpool. The place where legendary racehorse Red Rum won in 1973, 1974 and 1977.

The UK is one of the best places in the world to enjoy horse racing.

 

What does ‘warned off’ mean?

What does 'warned off' mean? Beyond the idiomatic sense of being discouraged from doing something, in the world of horse racing, a individual who is ‘warned off’ is subject to a specific punishment imposed by a regulatory body, such as the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), in Britain, or the Irish Horseracing Board (IHRB). Once ‘warned off’, an individual cannot enter premises licensed by the regulator, such as racecourses or training establishments, including their own, or associate with jockeys, trainers, owners or any other licensed or registered persons. The duration of the punishment could be months or years, at the discretion of the regulator.

For example, in March, 2021, Simon McGonagle, head lad to Co. Meath trainer Gordon Elliott, was warned off for nine months, seven of which were suspended, for taking an infamous photograph of Elliott sitting astride a dead horse. The photograph circulated widely on social media and led to the trainer being fined €15,000 and having his licence suspended for six months. Both men were found guilty of acting in a manner which was ‘prejudicial to the integrity, proper conduct or good reputation of horseracing’. Other serious rule breaches include corruption, in all its forms, and administering prohibited substances, such as anabolic steroids, to horses.

1 2 3 4 13