Do favourites have a good record in the 2,000 Guineas?
Traditionally the first British Classic of the season, the 2,000 Guineas is a test of class and, as such, is run off level weights; three-year-old fillies receive a 3lb weight-for-sex allowance from their male counterparts, but rarely, if ever, participate. Consequently, it’s reasonable to assume that, more often than not, the ‘best’ horse or, in other words, the favourite, will win. However, the 2,000 Guineas is restricted to three-year-olds in the first place, which, coupled with its position in the calendar, means that participants are often young, unexposed types, about whom only limited information is available.
Neverthless, in recent years, the bookmakers and the racing public have made a pretty good fist of identifying the ‘best’ horse in the 2,000 Guineas. In the past decade, five favourites – namely Frankel (2011), Camelot (2012), Dawn Approach (2013), Gleneagles (2015) and Churchill (2017) – have won the 2,000 Guineas, producing a level stake profit of 4.25 points and a return of investment of 42.5%. However, this was a significant improvement on the previous decade, during which just one favourite, George Washington (2006), prevailed in the 2,000 Guineas, producing a level stakes loss of 7.50 points and a return on investment of -75%.