Category: FAQ

It’s well understood that looking at statistics can help with horse racing betting. After all, you can be sure that most successful bettors know how statistics marry up with the market, acting accordingly. Yet, the first thing most of us look at on any race card is the odds, and our eye is inevitably drawn to the favourite.

Indeed, if you are ever at one of the great cathedrals of horse racing like Cheltenham or Churchill Downs, you can always be sure that the favourite gets the biggest cheer when winning the race. And if you’re watching television commentary, they will often explain that the favourite winning means the punters have beaten the bookies.

The logic of the latter statement is simple: the favourite has inevitably taken on the most money, thus the bookies stand to lose more in the horse betting markets. Yet, how often does this happen? How would you usually win if you unthinkingly bet on the favourite on every card?

A short and long answer

There is both a short and a long answer. The short answer is that the favourite wins about one in every three races on average. It can vary slightly by location and discipline. For example, it’s around 33% in American Thoroughbred Racing, whereas it is somewhat higher in British National Hunt racing (circa 37.5% in recent years). Yet, one in three is usually a fair statistic for professional horse racing globally.

As you might expect, the longer answer depends on the status of the favourite. For instance, in UK flat racing, odds-on favourites tend to win about 59% of the time. If the odds are 1/4 or lower, that rises to 86%. The other side is that handicaps have a 27% strike rate for favourites. This seems normal, as it can be harder to gauge how a horse will react to carrying extra weight than in the previous race.

The fact that handicaps can be tougher to predict can lead us to other assertions about favourites – it can be tougher to predict in large fields. A case in point is the UK Grand National, which has a strike rate of around 8% for favourites. The showcase at Aintree used to have 40 runners, and while that has been reduced to 34 in recent years, it can still cause the race to be chaotic and less predictable. The Melbourne Cup has a similar story, especially in recent years. Its field is not as large as the Grand National, but it can still be brutal for backing the favourites: only a handful have won the race this century, and none in recent years.

 

Approach each race differently.

This information might not help you pick out individual winners in specific races, but it can be helpful as a general guide. For instance, you would have been better off backing longshots in the Melbourne Cup in recent years (both for wins and places) than backing favourites. Backing longshots could have paid off in the Kentucky Derby over the last decade, too, as we have seen many big-priced winners and placed horses.

In the end, each race should be taken on its merit. You are going to see short-priced runners flop occasionally, and you will see 100/1 winners look like prime Frankel for one race only. That’s horse racing, and it happens from time to time. However, taking a statistical approach to each race card while adding to the context of the individual field will always be the best way forward.

The short answer in that he wasn’t, at least not in the sense that, say, the late Sir Henry Cecil was knighted, for services to racing, in November, 2011. Unlike his distinguished former colleague, Sir Mark Prescott was not invited to a formal ceremony of Investiture at Buckingham Palace and, consequently, was not ‘dubbed’ a knight by being briefly touched on each shoulder with the traditional Knighting sword by Queen Elizabeth II.

To avoid any confusion, Sir Mark Prescott is not a Knight of the Realm, but is afforded the title ‘Sir’ by virtue of the fact that he is a hereditary baronet. Thus, his name appears on racecards and elsewhere as Sir Mark Prescott, to distinguish him from a knight. Sir Mark is, in fact, third Baronet Prescott, of Godmanchester in the County of Huntingdon, and inherited the title following the death of his uncle, Sir Richard Stanley Prescott, in 1965. As such, in England, he officially ranks above all knights, except Knights of the Garter.

Hereditary dignitaries aside, Sir Mark, who turned 75 on March 3, 2023, has been the master of Heath House Stables, on Moulton Road, Newmarket since succeeding the previous incumbent, the late Jack Waugh, in 1970 at the age of just 22. Interviewed by the ‘Racing Post’ in July, 2022, he reflected on his early career, saying, ‘I didn’t take too many prisoners. I fired three people the first day I started. They were bullies, horrible bullies. I don’t think Mr. Waugh had realised how horrible they were.’ In over half a century at the helm, Sir Mark has saddled over 2,000 winners and, in recent years, has achieved numerous high-profile successes with Alpinista, who was retired to stud after justifying favouritism in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in October, 2022. Some people get start winning and never stop, like some of those at no deposit casino usa casinous on a winning streak!

Walk into any racetrack and you’ll see the same thing: crowds of people studying the odds board five minutes before post time, looking frustrated. They’re all chasing the same obvious picks that everyone else already bet down to nothing. The real money gets made while these folks are still stuck in traffic.

 

How Horse Racing Odds Are Determined

 

Track oddsmakers aren’t wizards. They plug numbers into computers and hope for the best. Past performances, speed ratings, trainer stats, whatever data they can find gets thrown into the mix. The result is a morning line that’s supposed to predict how the betting will go.

 

But morning lines are just guesses. Sometimes they’re close, sometimes they’re way off. The real action starts when actual money hits the pools, and that’s when things get interesting.

 

Here’s what happens in those first few hours of betting:

 

• Computer algorithms set initial prices based on raw data
• Early sharp money tests the waters with small bets
• Odds adjust slowly because pools are still small
• Public hasn’t started following tips and trends yet

 

Money Talks, Everything Else Walks

 

Every bet changes the odds a little bit. Drop a hundred bucks on a 10-1 shot when there’s only five grand total in the pool, and you’ll see that horse’s odds move. Try the same thing when the pool hits fifty thousand, and nobody notices.

 

Smart players know this. They get their money down early when their bets actually matter. Horse Racing Odds respond more dramatically to smaller amounts of money in those first few hours, which means better value for people who do their homework ahead of time.

 

The tote board doesn’t lie, but it tells different stories at different times. Early on, it’s about math and probability. Later, it’s about emotion and mob mentality.

 

The Market Effect and Public Money

 

Around lunchtime, regular folks start showing up at the track. They’ve got their newspapers, their lucky hats, and absolutely no clue what they’re doing. This is when the odds start getting weird. Horses that made sense at 8-1 in the morning suddenly look terrible at 4-1 after the public gets involved. Meanwhile, some longshot that nobody bothered with earlier starts looking like a steal because everyone’s ignoring it.

 

Following the Crowd Off a Cliff

 

Racing information spreads like gossip at a small town diner. One handicapper mentions a horse on the radio, another guy tweets about it, and suddenly everyone thinks they’ve discovered some secret. The horse’s odds crater faster than a lead balloon.

 

This happens every single day at every track in America. Horses become popular not because they’re better bets, but because they’re easier to spot. The 6-year-old gelding who’s been running decent but not spectacular races gets overlooked while everyone chases the flashy 3-year-old with the big-name jockey.

 

The trick is recognizing when this is happening and betting against it. Not every popular horse is a bad bet, but plenty of them are overbet simply because they’re popular.

 

Why Early Bets Often Hold More Value

 

Most people won’t spend three hours studying past performances, workout reports, and trainer statistics. They want someone else to do the thinking for them. That’s why tip sheets exist, why handicapping shows are popular, and why the same horses keep getting overbet.

 

But if someone’s willing to put in the work, there’s gold in them hills. Early odds don’t reflect everything that matters:

 

• Trainer patterns that repeat every few months
• Jockey switches that signal confidence or concern
• Track conditions that favor certain running styles
• Class drops that represent significant advantages
• Equipment changes that might improve performance

 

Getting There First

 

Early bettors aren’t smarter than everyone else. They’re just willing to work harder and act faster. The information exists for anyone who wants to find it, but most people would rather follow tips than do research. Different pieces of information become available at different times throughout the day. Morning workout reports might reveal exceptional training. Jockey agent moves could indicate stable confidence. Weather forecasts might favor certain types of horses.

 

Early bettors can act on this information immediately, before it becomes common knowledge. Waiting allows dozens of other people to process the same information and bet accordingly. The value disappears as fast as it appeared.

 

Risks and Considerations of Betting Early

 

Everything that can go wrong probably will go wrong at some point. Horses get scratched. Weather changes. Jockeys get injured. Track conditions shift from fast to muddy in the span of an hour. These things happen, and they can turn a solid bet into a disaster. The horse that looked unbeatable on a fast track becomes a sitting duck when it starts raining. Smart early bettors don’t just hope for the best.

 

They stay plugged in throughout the day, monitoring for changes that might affect their bets. Weather apps, track announcements, social media updates from connections, anything that might signal trouble. Sometimes the best move is cutting losses early. If conditions change dramatically, it’s better to eat a small loss than watch a bad situation get worse.

 

Strategic Timing: When to Place a Bet

 

Every race has its own rhythm. Big stakes races with huge fields might see steady action for days. Cheap claiming races often stay quiet until an hour before post time. Learning these patterns helps identify when to strike. For most races, the sweet spot falls somewhere between opening day and about four hours before post time.

 

A typical approach might work like this:

 

• Day before: Research and identify potential plays
• Morning of: Place bets if the value is obvious
• Afternoon: Monitor for changes and adjust if needed
• Final hours: Only bet if something major has changed

 

Wrapping Up

 

Betting before the market reacts isn’t rocket science. It’s about doing homework when others won’t, acting fast when others hesitate, and understanding that the best odds don’t last forever. The crowd always shows up eventually, and when they do, the value disappears. Getting there first makes all the difference between winning and losing in the long run.

 

If you are the kind of racing punter who likes to tackle the ante-post markets, you’ll likely have come across the term NRNB. It stands for Non-Runner No Bet, meaning that you will have your stake returned if, for some reason, your selection does not participate in the race.

NRNB is, therefore, an easy concept to understand, yet that said, its importance to some bettors cannot be understated. Moreover, it gets a bit more complicated as part of horse racing betting strategies.

To explain, you should consider the following scenario: If you place a bet, say, a couple of hours before a race, and your selection is suddenly scratched from the race, it’s almost certain that NRNB will be applied automatically. You’ll get your money back by presenting your betting slip (if you’re at the track) or automatically refunded to your online betting account.

Now, what if the bet wasn’t placed a couple of hours before the race but several months before it? Perhaps surprisingly for some inexperienced bettors, it’s actually highly unlikely that you would get your money back. That might sound unfair, but we can elaborate on the reasons why.

NRNB & Ante-Post Betting Strategies

It’s important to understand NRNB within the context of ante-post betting. If you were to look at the 2026 Grand National odds today, it’s clear that the markets will look very different nine months from now when the race goes off. There is a summer and the best part of the national hunt season to get through before we reach Mid-April at the Grand National at Aintree.

The allure of finding value

Therefore, you might see a horse available at 100/1 in the Grand National markets today who ends up being 10/1 on race day after impressing across the jumps season. That’s the art of ante-post betting: you are betting on the potential. It is an attempt to outsmart the bookmakers.

Now, the flipside is that your selection might not end up running in the race. If NRNB is not offered (which is unlikely at this point in our Grand National example), then you wouldn’t get your money back. The argument, on the bookmakers’ behalf, is that you are benefitting from potentially inflated odds and thus your wager is twofold: first, you are betting on the horse winning the race. Secondly, you are betting on the horse participating in the race.

For balance, we should say that there can be instances where you pick a horse in the ante-post markets and its odds actually rise before the race goes off, meaning you took a price that was lower than the SP. This does happen, but it’s again part of the ups and downs of ante-post betting.

A balance between risk and reward

So, why bother at all with ante-post betting? Why not just wait until closer to the race, knowing you will get your stake back if the horse doesn’t run? Well, as hinted, it’s all part of the art of ante-post betting. You are, in a sense, hunting for value. We can give some real-world examples. In January 2021, Put the Kettle On was priced around 66/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase that upcoming March at the Cheltenham Festival. By the time the Festival rolled around two months later, the mare was priced with an SP of 17/2. She duly won the race, and those who took the risk in January were handsomely rewarded.

It doesn’t always work out as neatly as it did with Put the Kettle On, but it is an example of what ante-post bettors are trying to achieve. They get double satisfaction – knowing that they won the race and that they got a much better price by employing a long-term strategy.

We will finish with an important tip. If you have an eye on a particular festival, shop around different bookmakers, as many will offer NRNB on big races as part of a promotion. It could give you an extra piece of insurance as part of your racing strategy.